New calculations put the odds at 1 in 1,750, a figure slightly higher than previously thought. Recently NASA updated its forecast of the chances that the asteroid Bennu, one of the two most hazardous known objects in our solar system, will hit Earth in the next 300 years. 'I think that, overall, the situation has improved. Even Harry Stamper would probably like these odds. 'The impact probability went up just a little bit but it's not a significant change, the impact probability is pretty much the same,' lead author Davide Farnocchia, who works at NASA's Center for Near Earth Object Studies in California, said during a news conference held Wednesday (Aug. And besides, the lessons the research offers for asteroid trajectory calculation could reduce concerns about potential impacts by other asteroids more than enough to compensate. Technically, that's a small increase in risk, but the scientists behind the new research say they aren't worried about a potential impact. While a slightly higher risk than past estimates, it represents a minuscule change in an already minuscule risk, NASA said. From the report: Estimates produced before OSIRIS-REx arrived at the space rock tallied the cumulative probability of a Bennu impact between the years 21 at 1 in 2,700, according to NASA. Though Bennu will come within half the distance of the moon, the odds of the asteroid colliding with Earth in the next century and causing Armageddon-type of destruction are still very low. 'As a result, scientists behind new research now say they're confident that the asteroid's total impact probability through 2300 is just 1 in 1,750,' reports. Then again, he points out, if he is wrong, "Paying up would be the least of my worries.NASA's OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has been orbiting an asteroid called Bennu for more than two years to fine-tune the agency's existing models of its trajectory. Winning the state's VaxMillions lottery on two separate days if every eligible adult resident is entered and a new drawing is held every second.īottom line? Janson, an affiliate in computer science, says that if he were a betting man, he would put his money on our being just fine. At a news conference on August 11, 2021, NASA scientists said there is a 1-in-1,750 chance that asteroid Bennu could collide with Earth between now and the year 2300.Throwing a dart at a dartboard with your eyes closed and hitting a bullseye.Any four random people sharing a birthday in the same month (the odds of this are 1 in 1,750 exactly). Space scientists continue to investigate the possibilities behind particles rising from the surface of the asteroid Bennu. Recently NASA updated its forecast of the chances that the asteroid Bennu, one of the two most hazardous known objects in our solar system, will hit Earth in the next 300 years. NASAs OSIRIS-REx spacecraft has been orbiting an asteroid called Bennu for more than two years to fine-tune the agencys existing models of its trajectory.Flipping a coin and having the first 11 attempts all land heads.They compared Bennu's chances of hitting Earth to the approximate likelihood of: Janson and Morgane Austern, both assistant professors of statistics. Researchers from the space agency used precision-tracking data from the OSIRIS-REx spacecraft (pictured above) to better understand the potentially hazardous asteroid’s movements. Now it’s 1-in-1,750 through the year 2300. The Bennu asteroid is more likely to hit the Earth next century than previously thought, Nasa has said, although the chance is still slim. This raises the question of just how good should we feel about our odds. Before Osiris-Rex arrived on the scene, scientists put the odds of Bennu hitting Earth through the year 2200 at 1-in-2,700. (In an unrelated development, NASA plans to launch a mission in November to see whether a spacecraft could hit a sizeable space rock and change its trajectory just in case it ever needs to.) several years in cold storage during travel to the target asteroid, Bennu.
The space agency, which has been tracking the building-sized rock since it was discovered in 1999, revised its prediction based on new tracking data.Įven with the small shift in odds, it seems likely we won't face the kind of scenario featured that in the 1998 science-fiction disaster film "Armageddon" when Stamper, played by Bruce Willis, and his team had to try to blow up a huge asteroid that was on an extinction-making collision course with the Earth. Small changes to the mass configuration were made to fine tune the system. Bennu is a near-Earth carbonaceous asteroid which will provide insight. New calculations put the odds at 1 in 1,750, a figure slightly higher than previously thought. In addition to the traditional scores, the continuous ranked probability score.
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